Understanding the Impact of Early Presidential Polls: A Closer Look at the Road to the Election

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A few months before the start of the party nominations, the media typically indulge in horserace analyses. Who is ahead and who is behind dominates campaign news.

Among Republican contenders, Trump enjoys a considerable lead. Among Democrats, Biden runs unopposed.

National surveys

The early polls thus point to another clash between Biden and Trump. To drum up an audience for the rematch, the news media commissioned a series of national polls that demonstrate a very close contest. The graph below traces the Biden-Trump horserace across the past 11 months. The average lead is now +1.0 in favor of Trump – approximately 45% to 44%.

Like Super Bowl pre-game hype, these early national polls stimulate all sorts of media speculation and analyses. They also contribute to a widespread misunderstanding about presidential elections.

Swing states determine the winner

Recall, that the popular vote does not determine the winner – witness the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections when the popular vote winner lost the election. Presidential campaigns are a series of state elections. And only a handful of states – swing states – determine who wins. As a result, candidates do not chase popular votes; they chase electoral college votes. This means national polls are largely irrelevant, and swing state polls are especially important.

State polling

Swing state public opinion polls should thus represent the highest standards in the polling business and be regularly updated. Yet polling organizations typically do not field state surveys. The relatively few surveys that do exist apply different sampling methodologies and various question designs. The results, therefore, fluctuate considerably and should be evaluated with caution. With these caveats in mind, here are the latest swing state poll results (there may be additional swing states as we near the general election).

If Biden and Trump win the states they are expected to, and current swing state margins hold, then Trump wins a majority of electoral college votes. Of course, a lot can change. Biden may step aside, Trump may lose the primaries, or be unable to continue given legal obstacles. A major international or regional event may shift opinion toward one party. There is a lot of uncertainty. All of this illustrates the futility of polling in advance of the primaries.

Ignore early polls

Although neither the nomination nor the general election turns on winning the national popular vote, national opinion surveys nevertheless appear in nearly every story about the presidential race. Unless you are a gambler, just ignore these polls. They are primarily used to sell news, not to inform the public.

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