Oil Wobbles, FedEx Surcharges Return, & Lead Balloon Lunch
Good morning from The Workday Dash — where we sip our coffee strong and our supply chain alerts stronger. ☕📦
Today’s forecast? A cautious shuffle in oil, an air freight fee that’s back with baggage, and a baby food recall that reminds us not all veggies are created equal.
1️⃣ Oil markets are toe-tapping around trade war tension and demand dips—Brent and WTI are waltzing just below $65 and $61.
2️⃣ FedEx reloaded its parcel surcharge on shipments from China, Hong Kong, and the Philippines. Spoiler: it's $0.45/lb through May 2—because nothing says “spring surcharge” like surprise fees.
3️⃣ Target’s pulling over 25,000 containers of baby food purée after elevated lead levels were found. Lead is not the kind of heavy metal you want on your shelf.
So buckle up—because logistics doesn’t hit snooze.
“Wonder what your customer really wants? Ask. Don’t tell.”
Oil, Tariffs & Trade Jitters: What’s Fueling the Freight Forecast?
The oil market’s doing a cautious shuffle right now. With Trump’s new tariffs sending shockwaves, energy demand forecasts are slipping. OPEC and the IEA just lowered their outlooks, and major players like Goldman Sachs and UBS shaved up to $15 off their price targets. Brent’s hovering around $65, WTI at $61.50.
Meanwhile, China pulled a Q1 surprise—exports jumped 12.4% and crude imports hit their highest since 2023. But analysts say it might just be early front-loading before a Q2 cooldown.
Add to that: Venezuela canceled Chevron shipments, Italy’s thinking twice about its coal exit, Saudi Arabia’s negotiating a nuclear deal, and copper’s climbing again thanks to tariff carveouts. It’s a volatile mix that hits every link in the supply chain.
✅ Why It Matters:
Oil shifts aren’t just for traders. They ripple into freight rates, fuel surcharges, and inventory strategies. If energy prices dip, great—but if demand drops too? That could mean slower freight flows and tighter margins.
🔥 Hot Take:
When oil wobbles, your logistics strategy better flex. Because in this climate, stability isn’t promised—adaptability is the edge.
FedEx Adds New Surcharges as U.S.-China Parcel Rules Tighten
Heads up, shippers 👀—FedEx just reinstated a surcharge on parcels from China, Hong Kong, and the Philippines to the U.S.: $0.45/lb (min. $1) through May 2. UPS followed suit with a $0.29/lb fee—but with no expiration date in sight.
Why now? Because the U.S. is tightening the de minimis rule. Starting May 2, shipments under $800 from China and Hong Kong will no longer be duty-free. FedEx will tack on new customs fees for sub-$800 imports—up to $8.50 or 2% of duties/taxes owed.
It’s a double-whammy: higher handling fees and more customs costs. If you’re importing cross-border eComm or small parcel B2B, it’s time to rethink strategy.
✅ Why It Matters:
Surcharges and rule changes = tighter margins, slower flows, and bigger headaches.
🔥 Hot Take:
Free trade? Not so much. That “cheap” parcel from Asia might cost more than you think.
Baby Food Recall Hits Target Shelves Over Lead Concerns
Target just pulled over 25,000 containers of its Good & Gather Baby Pea, Zucchini, Kale & Thyme Purée due to elevated lead levels. It’s a nationwide recall on lot numbers 4167 and 4169 (best by Dec 7 & 9, 2025).
The FDA originally flagged it in March, but it’s now been upgraded to a Class II recall—serious enough to pose health risks for kids. Even tiny traces of lead (we're talking drops in a swimming pool) are no joke for developing brains.
Target’s urging customers to toss the affected purée or return it for a refund. And for anyone in logistics or food handling, this is a loud reminder: even one bad batch can cause a nationwide scramble.
✅ Why It Matters:
Recalls don’t just hit brands—they hit the entire supply chain. Reverse logistics, restocks, reputation—it’s all on the line.
🔥 Hot Take:
If your label can’t keep up with your logistics, you’re not really ready for prime shelf space.
The Workday Dash is an aggregation of articles regarding the transportation logistics, trucking, and supply chain industries for July 31, 2025, from iLevel Logistics Inc.